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Anticipare il futuro

Anticipare il futuro

Autore: Alberto F. De Toni, Roberto Sigari e Cinzia Battistella

Editore: Egea, 2015, pp.278, € 40,00

Genere: Strategia

Chiave di lettura: il Corporate Foresight, per andare oltre i vecchi modelli previsionali.

Frase chiave: “Predire il futuro è impossibile, ma ci si può preparare ad un futuro incerto e a un ambiente complesso e dinamico, grazie ad un approccio di interesse verso il futuro e di attenzione ai segnali che già si stanno riscontrando nel presente”.


Tempi difficili per chi guida le organizzazioni. I cigni neri si propagano. Complessità e incertezza incalzano. L’agenda dei decision-maker varia di continuo. Viene da chiedersi se sia ancora possibile elaborare piani, ideare strategie di medio-lungo periodo, fare scelte ponderate. C’è chi dice che il cambiamento è talmente veloce che oramai riusciamo a malapena intravedere il presente, quando sta già per sparire. Se l’oggi è inafferrabile, figuriamoci allora il futuro! Possiamo però cercare di anticiparlo. È questa la tesi accattivante che viene dal bel libro firmato da Alberto F. De Toni, Roberto Sigari e Cinzia Battistella. Per cavalcare l’onda di cambiamenti, anziché rimanerne travolti, gli autori suggeriscono quattro strategie di anticipazione: cogliere i segnali deboli, comprendere i trend, gestire le wildcard (sorprese strategiche), costruire senari. Sono questi i sensori da monitorare periodicamente per riuscire ad essere flessibili e tempestivi in risposta ad eventi inaspettati, resilienti nel reggere le avversità dell’ambiente, creativi nel trasformare i problemi in opportunità.

Su come implementare in azienda un’efficace sistema di Corporate Foresight (CF), gli autori dedicano 278 pagine dense e appassionanti che integrano i risultati di futures studies consolidati con le nuove direzioni di ricerca in questo campo d’indagine. Un lavoro rigoroso che rilegge uno dei temi cruciali per le scienze manageriali (le analisi previsionali) alla luce della teoria della complessità. E lo fa integrando teoria e pratica Il case history Eurotech SpA, il cui Amministratore delegato (Roberto Sigari) è anche uno degli autori del libro è, in questo senso, un banco di prova illuminante. Inoltre, sebbene appena accennato, si racconta anche il caso di Telecom Italia che ha organizzato, un’unità (Future Centre) che studia l’evoluzione economica e tecnologica e il loro impatto sui mercati.

Il CF si direbbe uno strumento irrinunciabile per gestire la complessità e fare innovazione. Tuttavia non sono ancora molte le aziende disposte ad investire su questi strumenti. Motivo? Barriere politiche e organizzative, scarsa legittimazione da parte di un top management centrato su obiettivi a breve. Non ultimo, gli alti costi percepiti del servizio. Ma chi investe in CF, avvertono gli autori, non si illuda che basti applicare gli strumenti perché tutto scorra liscio come l’olio. Bisogna lavorare anche sulle persone, portarle a liberarsi di schemi di pensiero rigidi e obsoleti. A pensare in modo diverso. E non è facile.

Il CF è innestato su due processi chiave: Organizzazione e Gestione. Sono questi i pilastri dell’anticipazione. Gli autori sostengono che alcuni aspetti dell’Organizzazione vanno ripensati, a cominciare dal separare due funzioni fino a ieri integrate: Ricerca & Sviluppo. Motivo? “La Ricerca è orientata al mercato di domani, mentre lo Sviluppo si focalizza sul mercato di oggi. E il fatturato si fa perlopiù con il mercato attuale. Conseguenza, lo Sviluppo finisce per mangiarsi la Ricerca. E quando il futuro arriva, le imprese si ritroveranno con tecnologie obsolete, prodotti vecchi, design superati. Proprio per questo, il CF deve diventare una funzione di supporto alla Ricerca. Quanto alla Gestione, gli autori illustrano le molteplici tecniche (analisi di scenario, roadmapping, analisi delphi ecc.) e uno strumento denominato metodologia di copertura del futuro che verifica se la strategia è in linea con i trend e i prodotti. Inoltre una matrice di coerenza verifica la coerenza fra trend e visione, fra visione e prodotti, fra trend e prodotti, in vista di una maggiore sinergia. Un libro denso e documentato su un uno strumento di grande interesse per restituire alle imprese un po’ di “prevedibilità” (o, se preferite, di senso di controllo) in tempi imprevedibili. Viene però da chiedersi: quante sono nel nostro Paese le imprese così avanti nella mentalità da riuscire a vedere nel Corporate Foresight un investimento, anziché un mero costo?

 

 

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